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Scarborough pressure kept tightening around fishing access
Key takeaways
- The dispute is no longer driven only by ship encounters; laws, naming orders, maps, and administrative measures now shape escalation as well.
- Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal remain distinct pressure points, one centered on resupply risks and the other on fishing access and day-to-day control.
- The March 2026 dialogue restart lowered near-term miscalculation risk, but the latest naming and barrier moves show the rivalry is still sharpening rather than stabilizing.
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