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Commercial traffic returned to Hormuz, but coercive pressure stayed in place
Key takeaways
- The 2026 war turned decades of U.S.-Iran confrontation into direct interstate combat that quickly spread across Gulf bases, shipping lanes, and proxy fronts.
- Even with a temporary ceasefire, the conflict still hinges on maritime pressure in and around the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and the fate of Iran's nuclear and missile programs.
- Heavy casualties, regional spillover, and rising U.S. public opposition mean the political pressure for a negotiated pause has increased, but the underlying drivers of escalation remain unresolved.
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